Silver Projects Democrats to Hold Governorships in 392 Electoral Votes
Nate Silver said on November 4 that Democrats were on course to hold governorships in states representing 392 electoral votes, compared with 146 for Republicans, if remaining midterm results went as expected. He shared a map showing the projected state-by-state balance on X.
Democrats had flipped governorships in Texas, Ohio, Nevada, Georgia and Iowa, according to the results described so far. In Texas, Gina Hinojosa defeated incumbent Greg Abbott, ending a 31-year stretch of Republican dominance in the governor’s office. Democrats also won every statewide race in Georgia.
Republicans had victories in New Hampshire and Vermont. Kelly Ayotte retained her New Hampshire governorship, having maintained some separation from President Donald Trump during her campaign. Vermont Gov. Phil Scott secured a record sixth term. Tennessee’s Marsha Blackburn became governor, while Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville beat former Sen. Doug Jones.
The gubernatorial results came amid broader Democratic gains. Democrats won control of the House and gained Senate seats in a number of states Trump won in 2024. Silver has said a strong showing could make it harder for Republicans to control both chambers of Congress and the presidency in 2028, even if they win the presidential race.
Democratic Wave Reaches Governors’ Offices Across the Map
The midterm results point to a broad Democratic rejection of Republican leadership, with the party winning the House and building a striking advantage in governors’ offices. Nate Silver said on November 4 that Democrats could hold governorships in states representing 392 electoral votes, against 146 for Republicans, if the remaining results went as expected.
Democrats flipped governorships in Texas, Ohio, Nevada, Georgia and Iowa. In Texas, Gina Hinojosa defeated incumbent Greg Abbott, ending 31 years of Republican control of the governor’s office. Democrats also won every statewide race in Georgia, extending their gains beyond Congress and into state leadership.
Republican wins in New Hampshire and Vermont offered a narrower counterpoint. Kelly Ayotte retained her New Hampshire governorship after keeping Trump at arm’s length, while Vermont Gov. Phil Scott secured a record sixth term. Tennessee’s Marsha Blackburn won her state’s governor’s race, and Sen. Tommy Tuberville defeated Doug Jones in Alabama.
The scale of the Democratic gains matters beyond this election. Silver has warned that a strong congressional showing could make it difficult for Republicans to control Congress and the presidency in 2028, even if they win the White House. The results show the political cost of a party whose president’s candidates failed to prevent losses across the map.
Silver’s Governor Map Shows GOP Challenges After Midterm Losses
Democrats are celebrating a projected advantage in governors’ offices, but the map Nate Silver shared on November 4 remains conditional: the 392 electoral votes for Democratic-held states depend on remaining results going as expected. Republicans were projected to hold states totaling 146 electoral votes.
The losses are real. Democrats flipped governorships in Texas, Ohio, Nevada, Georgia and Iowa, and Gina Hinojosa’s Texas victory ended a 31-year Republican stretch in the governor’s office. Democrats also won every statewide contest in Georgia and took control of the House.
But Republican candidates held ground in some states. Kelly Ayotte retained New Hampshire’s governorship after maintaining distance from Trump during her campaign, and Vermont Gov. Phil Scott earned a record-setting sixth term. Tennessee’s Marsha Blackburn won the governor’s race, while Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville defeated Doug Jones.
Silver has warned that Democratic gains in Congress could complicate Republican efforts to control both chambers and the presidency in 2028, even if Republicans win the White House. That is a forecast about what the midterms could mean later, not a settled outcome: the remaining gubernatorial results still determine whether the map reaches the projected balance.
Reported by Raw Story, The Daily Beast.
