Talarico and Paxton Remain Nearly Even in Texas Senate Race

The Texas Senate contest between state Rep. James Talarico and Attorney General Ken Paxton remains within the margin of error in the latest polls, one week before Election Day. An Emerson College survey put Talarico ahead 48% to 46%; when undecided voters were asked to choose, the margin narrowed to 49% to 48%. The poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters from October 17 to 19 and has a 3.1-point margin of error.

Five of six public polls released over the preceding week showed Talarico ahead, though each race was within its margin of error. A Fox News poll found the candidates tied at 49%. Talarico led the RealClearPolitics polling average by 1.8 points.

The economy was the most frequently named top issue in the Emerson poll, cited by 39% of respondents, up three points from September. Immigration followed at 16%, then threats to democracy at 13%, education at 12% and health care at 9%. Among voters naming the economy as their leading concern, Paxton had a 47%-46% edge, with 6% undecided.

More than 4.5 million Texans had voted as of midday on October 26. Analysts expected turnout to reach about 10 million, compared with 8.1 million in the 2022 midterms. Early voting runs through October 30, and Election Day is November 3.

President Donald Trump was scheduled to hold rallies in Lubbock and Waco on October 27. Paxton campaigned with Gov. Greg Abbott and Sen. Ted Cruz over the weekend, while Talarico aired a statewide ad linking Paxton to corruption and pledging to reduce household costs. The candidates have not debated.

Texas Voters’ Cost-of-Living Anger Puts Paxton on Defense

Texas voters are giving James Talarico a real opening against Ken Paxton, and the issue at the top of their minds is the economy. An Emerson poll found 39% named it their leading concern, up three points from September, while Talarico led Paxton 48% to 46%. The contest is close, but the GOP’s usual claim to economic stewardship faces pressure as Texans confront high household costs and resistance to the state’s data-center boom.

The poll found that voters prioritizing the economy favored Paxton by just 47% to 46%, with 6% undecided. That narrow advantage hardly amounts to a decisive endorsement of the Republican record. Talarico has made household costs a central part of his statewide advertising, while the data-center backlash has unsettled the growth story Texas Republicans have long used to defend their rule.

The Senate race also puts a progressive candidate with a record of supporting trans rights and challenging Republican education measures within striking distance in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988. Five of six recent public polls gave Talarico a lead, though every contest remained within the poll’s margin of error; Fox News found a tie at 49% each.

By midday on October 26, over 4.5 million Texans had voted, and analysts expected turnout to approach 10 million. The choice now is whether Paxton can overcome voter unease about costs and growth, or whether Talarico can turn that dissatisfaction into a Senate victory. Election Day is November 3.

Paxton’s Texas Race Is Close, but Early Ballots Don’t Decide It

A narrow polling edge is not a Texas Senate victory. James Talarico led Ken Paxton 48% to 46% in an Emerson survey, but the result was within the 3.1-point margin of error. When undecided voters were pressed to choose, Talarico’s advantage shrank to 49% to 48%; Fox News found the candidates tied at 49% each.

The early-voting numbers also do not settle the contest. More than 4.5 million Texans had voted by midday October 26, but Republican voters have been more likely than Democrats to say they plan to wait until Election Day. Republican data consultant Derek Ryan said many repeat Republican-primary voters had yet to cast ballots, and both parties’ repeat voters typically turn out at high rates. The Republican case rests on those voters showing up and rural counties delivering a substantial share of the statewide vote.

The economy is the leading concern for 39% of voters, and those respondents narrowly favored Paxton, 47% to 46%, with 6% undecided. Talarico’s cost-focused pitch and the backlash to data centers have complicated Republicans’ familiar argument about Texas growth, but the polling does not show the Democrat breaking away. The Libertarian candidate’s supporters could also shift the balance: Emerson’s polling director said they are mainly independents or Republicans, giving Paxton a potential benefit if they move to him.

Trump was set to campaign in Lubbock and Waco on October 27, while Paxton had recently appeared with Gov. Greg Abbott and Sen. Ted Cruz. With early voting ending October 30 and Election Day on November 3, the race remains a turnout test—not a foregone conclusion.