Talarico Opens Early Lead Over Paxton in Texas Senate Race

Talarico held an early advantage over Paxton as results came in across Texas, with strong initial numbers in North Texas suburbs and large margins in urban areas reporting votes. The lead was not decisive: at 7:45 p.m., much of the Election Day vote still had to be counted, and Republicans expected to do better among those ballots.

More than 7.7 million people voted early, in person or by mail, during the state’s 12-day voting period. That was 40.5% of registered voters, a record for a modern Texas midterm early-voting period. The Senate contest was also the most expensive in U.S. history.

Talarico, an Austin state representative and Presbyterian seminarian, campaigned on education and the cost of living, while criticizing corporate and billionaire influence and Paxton’s ethical and legal controversies. He opposed a Texas law requiring public schools to display a Protestant version of the Ten Commandments. Talarico had led most statewide polls since mid-summer and raised substantially more than Paxton, though conservative groups spent heavily on advertising for Paxton.

Paxton, the state’s attorney general since 2015, presented himself as a conservative defender of Texas. He won the Republican nomination by defeating incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in a runoff after President Donald Trump endorsed him. Paxton’s campaign also faced scrutiny over allegations of corruption and his divorce; the Texas House impeached him in 2023, but the state Senate acquitted him.

The outcome could affect control of the U.S. Senate. Republicans entered Election Day with 53 seats, while Democrats would need to gain four seats and hold their current seats to take the majority. Texas Democrats have not won a statewide race since 1994. The vote count was ongoing, with results preliminary until certified.

Talarico’s Early Lead Puts Texas Within Reach for Democrats

Talarico’s early lead showed Democrats competing seriously in Texas, where they have not won a statewide race since 1994. His advantage came from strong initial results in North Texas suburbs and major urban areas, though the race was still uncalled and Election Day ballots remained to be counted.

The contest could help determine control of the Senate, where Democrats needed to gain four seats while holding their own. More than 7.7 million Texans had voted early, representing 40.5% of registered voters and a modern-era record for a Texas midterm. Republicans expected stronger support from Election Day voters.

Talarico, an Austin state representative, focused on education and household costs and challenged the influence of wealthy donors and corporations. He also opposed a law requiring the Ten Commandments, in a Protestant translation, to be displayed in public-school classrooms. His campaign raised more than Paxton’s, while conservative groups poured money into ads attacking him.

Paxton’s record, including allegations of corruption and his ongoing divorce, became a campaign issue. The Texas House impeached him in 2023, but the state Senate acquitted him. Despite that history, Paxton campaigned as a conservative fighter and received Trump’s backing in the Republican primary runoff against Sen. John Cornyn. With the count unfinished, the early lead offered Democrats an opening, not a result.

Paxton’s Texas Senate Fight Comes Down to Election Day Turnout

Paxton faced an early deficit in a contest that could shape the Senate majority, but the initial count did not settle the race. Talarico’s lead reflected strong early results in urban areas and North Texas suburbs; Republicans expected to improve their position as Election Day votes were tallied.

The scale of early voting made turnout especially consequential: more than 7.7 million Texans voted early, or 40.5% of registered voters, a modern Texas midterm record. Republicans began the day with 53 Senate seats, and Democrats needed to gain four while defending their existing seats to take control.

Paxton ran as a conservative determined to keep Texas Republican. Trump endorsed him before Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the party’s runoff. National Republican groups spent heavily on advertising against Talarico, whose campaign had raised substantially more money. Trump and Vice President JD Vance also held campaign events in Texas to encourage Republican turnout.

Talarico promoted his positions on education and the cost of living and criticized Paxton’s legal and ethical record. Paxton attacked Talarico’s progressive statements. The attorney general’s own controversies—including corruption allegations and his divorce—were also prominent. The Texas House impeached Paxton in 2023, but the state Senate acquitted him. With substantial Election Day votes still outstanding, Republicans’ expected turnout advantage remained a central factor in the unresolved race.