Midterm losses raise questions about MAGA’s future

Democrats won the national midterm popular vote by 13.8 percentage points, took control of Congress and secured a majority of governorships, in a setback described as the largest modern midterm wave by party vote margin. The results came after Trump urged voters to treat him as if he were on the ballot. Many voters opposed to his policies backed Democrats, while some Republicans and MAGA supporters stayed home.

The Republican defeat has sharpened attention on the party’s prospects after Trump leaves office and on possible contenders for the 2028 presidential nomination. University of Virginia political scientist Jennifer Lawless said the movement could struggle to continue without another prominent figure able to draw voters to candidates down the ballot.

Vice President JD Vance blamed the Iran war, which Trump launched with Israel in February, for the losses. Trump, meanwhile, criticized Republican candidates and Fox News rather than accepting blame. Vance faces competing pressures: his close association with Trump could alienate voters who rejected the administration’s policies, while distancing himself could cost him the president’s backing and MAGA support.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis emerged from the election with Republican victories in his state, which has become a GOP stronghold. He has sought distance from Trump and may pursue another presidential run. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is also seen as a possible 2028 contender. But DeSantis’s wins do not establish that he can command a movement built around Trump’s personal appeal.

The election also exposed challenges in maintaining the coalition Trump assembled in 2024. Exit polls indicated that Latino and younger voters favored Democrats by substantial margins, while the party also captured five or more Senate seats in states Trump had won by double-digit margins. Texas elected Democrat Gina Hinojosa as governor, contrasting with Florida’s Republican results.

Democratic control of both chambers raises the prospect of another impeachment effort against Trump. Democrats had been divided before the election over whether to pursue one, citing alleged violations of judicial directives and congressional summonses, as well as the use of federal funds. The outcome leaves the Republican Party facing questions about its direction during Trump’s final two years and beyond.