Analysis Finds Major Errors in California Voter List
An analysis filed in federal court on October 31 found that 8,880 of the 20,930 names on a federal list of people suspected of being ineligible to vote in California did not match anyone on the state’s current voter file. The review was conducted by two analysts with UCLA’s Voting Rights Project for a case brought by a group advocating for immigrant rights.
The analysts also found at least 22 apparent matches between the federal list and records held by the immigrant rights organization for members and clients who are U.S. citizens. Using the government’s broader matching criteria, they identified 6,140 of the group’s records as potentially at risk of investigation. Their estimates, when applied to California’s 3.8 million naturalized citizen voters, included nearly 7,500 people highly likely to have been flagged incorrectly.
The Justice Department had asked California election officials to separate ballots linked to the list while citizenship was checked, and warned officials of possible criminal consequences for knowingly processing noncitizens’ ballots. California officials questioned the list’s accuracy. Courts have rejected the administration’s effort to set aside the disputed ballots, and a federal judge directed the department to cease making requests of state officials; the administration appealed that decision. The department says separating ineligible ballots protects eligible voters. Its spokesperson said, “Every ballot cast by an ineligible voter cancels out the vote of an American citizen.”
Federal Voter List Risks Wrongly Flagging Eligible Californians
The Trump administration’s effort to identify suspected noncitizen voters in California is putting eligible voters at risk, a federal court filing on October 31 indicates. UCLA analysts found that 8,880 of the 20,930 names on the government’s list do not appear on California’s voter file. Their review also found at least 22 apparent matches to U.S. citizens in records held by an immigrant rights advocacy group.
The stakes extend beyond the people identified by name. Applying the government’s matching approach to California’s 3.8 million naturalized citizen voters, the analysts estimated that nearly 7,500 could be highly likely incorrect matches. They also found 6,140 citizen records from the group at risk of investigation under broader criteria. The lawsuit argues that the process can deter or disenfranchise eligible voters, including naturalized citizens, when election officials face threats and little time to verify names.
The Justice Department sought to have ballots associated with the list separated until citizenship could be checked, while warning officials of possible criminal consequences for knowingly processing noncitizen ballots. Courts have rejected the administration’s bid to set aside disputed ballots, and a federal judge directed the department to cease making requests of state officials. The administration appealed. The department says its actions protect legitimate votes, but the analysis raises a basic concern: a list that fails to match thousands of people to the voter rolls cannot safely serve as a basis for disrupting ballots.
Faulty Matching Is No Reason to Ignore Noncitizen Voting Concerns
The new analysis of the federal list raises serious questions about its accuracy, but it does not erase the Justice Department’s stated concern: ballots cast by people who are ineligible to vote can cancel out citizens’ votes. The department sought to have ballots connected to suspected noncitizens separated while eligibility was checked, and warned officials about potential criminal consequences for knowingly processing noncitizen ballots.
UCLA analysts found that 8,880 of the 20,930 names on the list did not match California’s current voter file. They also identified at least 22 apparent matches to citizens in records held by an immigrant rights advocacy group. The researchers estimated that, using the government’s methodology, nearly 7,500 naturalized citizens could be highly likely incorrect matches. Those findings make the reliability of the list a central issue—not proof that the government’s underlying goal of preventing ineligible voting should be abandoned.
Courts have rejected the administration’s effort to have California set aside the disputed ballots. A federal judge also directed the Justice Department to cease making requests of state officials, and the administration appealed. The department argues that eligible voters’ interests are at stake when ineligible ballots are counted. Officials must contend with both sides of that risk: preventing unlawful voting while avoiding mistaken accusations against eligible citizens.
Reported by Raw Story, KPRC 2 Click2Houston, Salon, PBS NewsHour, Mother Jones.
