Pennsylvania’s Closest Races Head Into Election Day
Pennsylvania voters face a slate of close races on November 3 that could affect control of the U.S. House and the state Senate. Democrats have momentum heading into the final campaign weekend, but several contests remain within the margin of error.
In the Bucks County-based 1st Congressional District, Democrat Bob Harvie leads Republican incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick 48% to 46% in an Inquirer/New York Times/Siena University poll. The same poll found President Donald Trump with a 35% approval rating and 61% disapproval in the district, while Gov. Josh Shapiro had 67% approval and 27% disapproval. Fitzpatrick, a five-term incumbent, has sought to distance himself from Trump; Democrats have tried to link the two.
Democrats Bob Brooks and Paige Cognetti lead GOP officeholders in Pennsylvania’s 7th and 8th House districts, while Republican Scott Perry and Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson are locked in a tie in their Harrisburg-area rematch. The four nationally watched House races in Pennsylvania are all within the margin of error.
Control of the state Senate is also uncertain. Republicans hold 27 seats, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates the chamber a toss-up. Democrat James Malone, who narrowly won a 2025 special election in Lancaster County, is defending his seat in a district with many registered Republicans. Democrats are also hoping Shapiro’s reelection campaign will help their candidates down the ballot, while Republicans are seeking to retain their legislative majorities.
Democrats Enter Pennsylvania Election With Momentum
Pennsylvania’s close races give Democrats an opening to challenge Republican power in Washington and Harrisburg, with Gov. Josh Shapiro’s popularity and campaign activity potentially helping candidates down the ballot. The contests remain tight, but Democrats have momentum heading into the final weekend before the November 3 election.
In Bucks County’s 1st Congressional District, Democrat Bob Harvie leads Republican incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick 48% to 46% in an Inquirer/New York Times/Siena University poll. The district’s numbers point to the challenge facing Republicans: President Donald Trump has a 35% approval rating and 61% disapproval, while Shapiro has 67% approval and 27% disapproval. Fitzpatrick is trying to separate himself from Trump as Democrats work to connect them.
Democrats Bob Brooks and Paige Cognetti lead Republican incumbents in the 7th and 8th Districts, while Janelle Stelson is in a dead heat with Republican Scott Perry. All four of the state’s nationally watched House races are within the margin of error, putting control of the chamber in play.
The state Senate is rated a toss-up, and Democrats are seeking a majority in a chamber Republicans have controlled continuously since 1994. Shapiro is campaigning across the state for his reelection and to boost fellow Democrats. James Malone, who won a 2025 special election by 529 votes, faces a difficult defense in Republican-leaning Lancaster County. The results will determine whether Democrats can turn their current momentum into greater influence in both Harrisburg and Washington.
Close Pennsylvania Races Put GOP Majorities at Risk
Pennsylvania Republicans face a serious test on November 3, as Democrats look to capitalize on Gov. Josh Shapiro’s popularity and expand their reach in the state Senate and U.S. House. The races are close, but a Democratic surge could reshape both chambers.
In the Bucks County-based 1st Congressional District, Democrat Bob Harvie leads five-term Republican incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick 48% to 46% in an Inquirer/New York Times/Siena University poll. President Donald Trump’s approval there stands at 35%, with 61% disapproving, while Shapiro’s approval is 67%. Democrats are trying to tie Fitzpatrick to Trump; Fitzpatrick has sought to distance himself from the president and the GOP.
GOP officeholders representing Pennsylvania’s 7th and 8th House districts trail Democrats Bob Brooks and Paige Cognetti, and Scott Perry is in a dead heat with Janelle Stelson in the Harrisburg-area rematch. All four nationally watched House contests are within the margin of error, making them consequential races in the fight for chamber control.
The state Senate is also rated a toss-up, though Republicans hold 27 seats and Majority Leader Joe Pittman has said he expects the GOP majority to grow by one. Democrat James Malone is defending a Lancaster County seat he won by 529 votes in a 2025 special election, in a district with many registered Republicans. The contest illustrates the stakes for Republicans as they try to preserve their long-held Senate majority while Democrats campaign for a unified state government.
Reported by The Philadelphia Inquirer, PhillyVoice.
