Midterm races tighten as campaigns make their final appeals
On October 30, the final stretch of campaigning featured a crowded map: all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 39 governorships are up for election on Tuesday. Ratings shifted 12 more House seats toward Democrats, while analysts offered competing expectations for the Senate and House outcomes.
The Ohio governor’s race has drawn attention after Republican Vivek Ramaswamy ran an ad featuring the estranged mother of his Democratic opponent, Amy Acton. The ad drew bipartisan backlash and is no longer airing. A confidential survey funded by a GOP organization showed Ramaswamy trailing Acton by eight points, according to a Republican strategist.
In Michigan, Republican campaign messaging has targeted Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, including claims linking him to the Muslim Brotherhood, which he has condemned. In Georgia’s close governor’s race, Democratic candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms and GOP nominee Rick Jackson are seeking support from voters who also back Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff. Republican John E. Sununu, running for Senate in New Hampshire, has emphasized that he is not aligned with President Donald Trump.
The closing messages have diverged: Democratic Senate candidates have more often focused on corruption, costs and Trump, while Republican ads have emphasized immigration, crime and transgender issues. On a political panel, Matthew Continetti predicted Democrats could win a 15-to-20-seat House majority and Republicans could narrowly retain the Senate. Jonathan Capehart declined to make a forecast, citing ticket-splitting in several key states. Both said the results would depend on voters turning out.
Voters are weighing costs as Republicans lean on divisive appeals
The closing stretch of the midterms is exposing a divide over what voters should be asked to focus on: Democrats are highlighting corruption, high costs and President Donald Trump, while Republican campaigns have centered more often on immigration, crime and transgender issues. With all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats on the ballot Tuesday, the stakes extend across the country.
In Michigan, Republican campaign messages have attacked Democrat Abdul El-Sayed with claims linking him to the Muslim Brotherhood, a group he has condemned. Sen. Ted Cruz also used inflammatory language about El-Sayed at a campaign event for Republican Mike Rogers. The rhetoric puts the focus on whether voters will accept attacks on a candidate’s faith and alleged associations rather than judge the contest on its policy stakes.
Ohio offers another warning sign for Republicans. Vivek Ramaswamy’s now-ended ad featuring the estranged mother of Democratic governor candidate Amy Acton drew bipartisan backlash. A confidential survey underwritten by a Republican organization put Ramaswamy eight points behind Acton, and ratings shifted 12 more House seats toward Democrats.
Democrats are also competing in states Republicans have long counted on: analysts see an expanded set of Senate toss-ups on Republican territory, including Michigan and Ohio. The outcome is not settled, but the closing campaign has put economic pressure and the consequences of Republican messaging squarely before voters.
Democrats’ midterm hopes hinge on turnout and uneasy forecasts
The final days of the midterm campaign bring a familiar risk for Democrats: momentum and favorable forecasts do not count as votes. Jonathan Capehart pointed to ticket-splitting in Florida, Texas and Michigan, while Matthew Continetti said Republicans could hold the Senate narrowly even as Democrats win a House majority. The polls may be wrong, Continetti cautioned.
President Donald Trump has been traveling to states he won handily in 2024 to motivate Republican voters. The challenge is that some parts of his 2024 coalition, including young men, independents and Hispanic voters, have moved toward Democrats, while Republicans are nervous about turnout among rural and working-class white voters. The campaign’s final test is whether Trump’s core supporters show up in a midterm when he is not on the ballot.
Democrats have focused their closing Senate messages more often on Trump, corruption and costs. Republicans have emphasized immigration, crime and transgender issues. The Ohio governor’s race has also become a complication: Ramaswamy’s ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother drew bipartisan backlash, and a confidential survey funded by a Republican organization showed him trailing by eight points. That dispute could affect the surrounding political contest, but it does not settle the election.
House ratings have moved toward Democrats, with 12 more seats shifted in their direction. But control of the Senate remains uncertain, and some forecasts put Republicans in position to retain it by a narrow margin. Voters, not campaign projections, will decide both chambers on Tuesday.
Reported by The Guardian US, NBC News, PBS NewsHour.
