Polls Put Texas and Kansas Senate Seats in Play

CNN data analyst Harry Enten said on Thursday that new polling in Texas and Kansas showed unusually strong results for Democrats in states long considered Republican strongholds. The figures come ahead of Tuesday’s election, with Democrats seeking to gain ground in the Senate.

Republican Senate Strongholds Face a Democratic Surge

New polling in Texas and Kansas points to a striking shift: Democratic candidates are challenging Republicans in states long treated as reliably red. In Texas, CNN’s survey put James Talarico six points ahead of Republican Ken Paxton, a margin Harry Enten said he could match in past late-campaign polling only in 1988.

In Kansas, Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton was at 49 percent, though the race had no clear leader. Democrats have not won a Senate race there since 1932, making the result an unusually strong showing for the party. Maine’s Senate contest was also described as too close to call, while Democratic candidates were ahead in Michigan and Texas.

The numbers give Democrats a possible path toward Senate control, a prospect that appeared remote to many just months ago. They also put pressure on Republicans in states their party has long counted on. The polling offers a sharp test of whether those advantages will hold in Tuesday’s election.

Polls Raise Questions About Democratic Senate Momentum

Democrats are touting polling that puts their candidates in contention in Republican-leaning states, but the numbers do not settle the Senate races. CNN’s survey showed James Talarico six points ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in Texas, while Kansas Democrat Adam Hamilton polled at 49 percent without a clear lead.

The Texas result is a rare late-campaign position for a Democratic Senate nominee; Harry Enten said he found a comparable showing only in 1988. Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, making Hamilton’s poll result notable, but a single poll does not determine the outcome. Maine was also described as too close to call, even as Democrats led in Michigan and Texas.

Democrats see a chance to take Senate control, while Republicans still face races that remain unsettled. The election on Tuesday will show whether the polling strength in these states translates into victories.