Mestemaker Edges Smith in 2027 NFL Draft No. 1 Market

The Kalshi market has become a two-player race: Mestemaker and Smith are the only candidates above 35%, while every other player is below 10%. Darian Mensah is listed at 9%, CJ Carr at 6% and Trinidad Chambliss at 5%. A $10 trade would return a $15.86 profit on Mestemaker or $17.31 on Smith if that player is selected first.

Mestemaker entered the season with about a 10% chance in the market. In his final season at North Texas, he ranked first nationally with 4,379 aerial yards and recorded 39 touchdowns. Now at Oklahoma State, he has 2,649 passing yards and 25 passing touchdowns, tied for the most in college football.

Smith, also around 10% before the season, has 62 catches, 1,067 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. He averaged 17.2 yards per reception. His first two college seasons included more than 1,300 yards and 15 touchdowns as a freshman, followed by over 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns as a sophomore.

The eventual team with the first pick could affect the choice. As NFL play reached Week 9, the Chargers of Los Angeles held the top selection and were described as needing a receiver. Tennessee had the second pick and could also seek a receiver, while Miami, third in line, was described as needing a quarterback.