Climate Talks Confront Warming, Energy Shocks and Fossil Fuel Dependence

World leaders are due to open the United Nations’ COP31 climate talks in Antalya on November 9, as delegates take up how to carry out earlier commitments and shift away from fossil fuels. Turkey is promoting a plan to expand electricity use powered by solar and wind, including in transportation. Talks will also address financing for poorer countries to adopt renewable energy, adapt to warming and recover from climate-related damage.

The negotiations come as global warming reaches about 1.4 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, with the world on course for 2.6 degrees by the end of the century, the U.N. has found. The 2015 climate deal aimed to keep warming well below 2 degrees, while pursuing a 1.5-degree limit. Scientists warn that further warming could bring more extreme floods, droughts and storms, as well as risks such as shifts in ocean currents and the collapse of the Amazon rainforest.

Energy security is also shaping the talks. The war in Ukraine and the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran have contributed to energy shocks and higher fossil fuel prices. Meanwhile, countries are using renewable and fossil fuel energy together to meet growing demand, including from artificial intelligence.

The United States, the largest historical carbon polluter, is not expected to attend. Its absence complicates discussions over who should pay for climate action, said Niklas Höhne of Germany’s NewClimate Institute. The U.N. estimates global fossil fuel subsidies reached $1.1 trillion this year.

Fossil fuels have rarely been named directly in COP agreements, which require consensus. Brazil has issued a voluntary road map for moving away from them, while advocates say governments and industry interests are slowing progress. Youth activist Ashley Lashley said she remains hopeful but increasingly frustrated by the negotiations.

COP31 Must Confront Fossil Fuels as Climate Risks Mount

The climate talks in Antalya begin with the world already at about 1.4 degrees Celsius of warming and heading toward 2.6 degrees by century’s end. COP31 must turn past promises into action, including a real transition away from the fuels driving the crisis.

The stakes are not abstract: scientists warn of more severe floods, droughts and storms, as well as possible shifts in ocean currents and the collapse of the Amazon rainforest. Yet fossil fuels have rarely been explicitly addressed in final COP agreements, which require consensus. Climate advocates argue that avoiding the source of the problem has helped leave global efforts off track.

Turkey is pushing a plan to expand electricity powered by solar and wind, and Brazil has offered a voluntary road map for reducing fossil fuel use. But the U.N. estimates fossil fuel subsidies reached $1.1 trillion this year. Advocates say governments and incumbent industries—not a lack of technology—are holding back change.

The United States, the largest historical carbon polluter, is not expected to participate. Its absence also leaves a major gap in negotiations over who pays for poorer countries to transition, adapt and recover from climate damage. COP31 must address both the emissions and the financing, rather than negotiate how much failure the world should accept.

Climate Talks Must Balance Emissions Goals With Energy Security

COP31 begins in Antalya as governments face a difficult balance: reducing emissions while meeting growing energy needs. The world is using renewable and fossil fuel sources together, including to serve rising demand from artificial intelligence and economic development. Recent energy shocks have also forced countries to rethink their energy systems.

The war in Ukraine and the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran have pushed energy security into the foreground. Against that backdrop, Turkey is promoting a plan to expand electricity use powered by solar and wind, while talks will consider how poorer countries can fund renewable energy, adaptation and recovery from climate damage.

The U.N. says the world is at about 1.4 degrees Celsius of warming and on course for 2.6 degrees by the end of the century. Those figures make the climate challenge clear, but negotiators also have to contend with the fact that final COP decisions require consensus. A sweeping phaseout commitment cannot simply be assumed to command agreement.

The United States, the largest historical carbon polluter, is not expected to attend, complicating the question of who pays. The U.N. estimates fossil fuel subsidies reached $1.1 trillion this year. COP31 should focus on practical ways to deliver past pledges and expand cleaner energy, while recognizing that a secure supply remains central to countries’ decisions.