Arizona GOP Models Signal Trouble on Election Day

An unnamed Republican analyst sent a warning about the party’s prospects in Arizona on the morning of November 3, saying their models were already pointing to a grim result. Garrett Archer, an election data analyst for ABC15 Arizona and former GOP strategist, shared the message and said it concerned races in the state.

Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs was seeking a second term against Republican Rep. Andy Biggs. Recent polling cited in the reports showed Hobbs ahead, generally by single digits. Democrats were also leading in polling for secretary of state and attorney general, though the margin in the attorney general’s race was narrow in one survey.

Two congressional contests could affect control of the House. Democrat Amish Shah faced Republican Jay Feely in the 1st District, a race rated lean Democratic by Cook Political Report. In the 6th District, Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani faced Democrat JoAnna Mendoza; forecasters had described the contest as a toss-up or lean Democratic, and private surveys commissioned by each party found Mendoza with a slight advantage.

Arizona Republicans also expressed concern about early voting. State Rep. Alexander Kolodin urged party members on a private call to intensify their efforts, while Republican Warren Petersen said early voting was favoring Democrats more than the party needed. Voters were deciding the races on Election Day.

Arizona Republicans’ Own Models Warn of Election Day Trouble

The warning came from inside the Republican camp: an unnamed party analyst said their models were already projecting a bleak Election Day in Arizona. The message, shared by election data analyst Garrett Archer, lands as Democrats lead in polling for the governor’s office and other statewide contests.

Gov. Katie Hobbs was seeking a second term against Republican Andy Biggs, with recent polls showing her ahead. Democrats Adrian Fontes and Kris Mayes also led their Republican opponents in polling for secretary of state and attorney general. In the congressional contests, Democrat Amish Shah’s race against Jay Feely was rated lean Democratic, while Democrat JoAnna Mendoza held narrow leads in internal polls against Rep. Juan Ciscomani.

Republican officials’ own concerns underscore the stakes. Alexander Kolodin urged party members to redouble their efforts, and Warren Petersen said the early-voting picture was weaker for Republicans than the party needed. The results would determine whether those concerns reflected a broader shift in Arizona’s closely watched contests.

Arizona GOP Faces Tight Races as Early Voting Favors Democrats

Arizona Republicans entered Election Day confronting a warning from one of their own analysts: party models were already projecting a poor outcome. But forecasts and polling are not votes, and the state’s competitive races remained to be decided on November 3.

Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs led Republican challenger Andy Biggs in recent polls. Democrats also held polling leads in the secretary of state and attorney general contests. In the House races, Amish Shah faced Jay Feely in a district with a Republican registration advantage, while Juan Ciscomani faced JoAnna Mendoza in a contest rated a toss-up or lean Democratic.

Republican figures sounded the alarm over turnout. State Rep. Alexander Kolodin called on party members to increase their efforts, and Warren Petersen said early voting was more favorable to Democrats than Republicans needed. The warning points to the challenge for the GOP: its candidates must overcome polling deficits and a Democratic edge in early ballots to prevail.