Florida GOP Alarmed by Early Voting in Governor’s Race

Florida Republicans are worried about early voting in the governor’s race, where Republican Rep. Byron Donalds is challenging former Republican congressman David Jolly, now a Democrat, to replace term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis. The concerns come two days before Election Day, even as most polls have Donalds narrowly ahead and Republicans hold a substantial voter-registration advantage.

Florida GOP’s Turnout Edge May Not Be Enough for Donalds

Florida Republicans are confronting a troubling turnout picture in the governor’s race: despite an 11-point voter-registration advantage, their lead in early ballots was only three percentage points as of November 1. Donalds, the Republican nominee, faces Democrat David Jolly, and the early numbers have raised concern in his party just two days before Election Day.

Party estimates put Donalds as much as 500,000 votes behind when Election Day begins. To overcome that deficit, he could need to win the day-of vote by two to one—a steep challenge, even though Republicans have posted large Election Day margins before.

The weakness is particularly pronounced across the Panhandle and northern Florida’s countryside, among them counties Donalds failed to carry during the GOP primary. In those counties, Republican turnout was 3.2 points below its 2022 level, compared with a 1.1-point decline in counties he won.

The pattern has also fueled concerns that racism may be affecting support for Donalds, who is Black. A Republican consultant described the election as a test of how much bias exists among voters, while GOP chair Evan Power dismissed the alarm, saying Republicans know how to win on Election Day.

Donalds has raised $176 million, compared with Jolly’s $28 million. Republicans also retain a 1.5 million-voter registration advantage and stronger state-level funding and organization. But those resources have not erased the party’s anxiety over turnout.

Florida Republicans Still Have the Numbers to Win

Florida Republicans are uneasy about early voting in the governor’s race, but the numbers do not erase the advantages Byron Donalds brings into the final stretch against Democrat David Jolly. Republicans hold an 11-point registration edge and outnumber Democrats statewide by 1.5 million, while Donalds has raised far more campaign money than Jolly.

As of November 1, Republicans led Democrats in early ballots by three percentage points, a smaller margin than in the previous two general elections. Party estimates put Donalds as many as 500,000 votes behind heading into Election Day, potentially requiring him to win that vote by two to one.

Republican turnout has lagged most across the Panhandle and northern Florida’s countryside, including 17 counties Donalds failed to carry in the primary. In those counties, turnout was 3.2 points below 2022, compared with a 1.1-point decline in counties he carried. The concern is real, but Republicans have delivered large Election Day margins before, and state party chair Evan Power said the party knows how to do it.

Some Republicans have also raised the possibility that racial bias is affecting Donalds’ support. Those concerns remain alongside the party’s argument that its registration advantage, funding and organization can carry the race. Most polls show Donalds narrowly ahead, leaving the outcome dependent on whether Republican voters turn out on Election Day.