Iowa Senate Race Ends in a Polling Dead Heat

Six polls conducted in October and early November showed no candidate ahead by more than three percentage points, with every lead within the poll’s margin of error. The surveys gave Turek leads ranging from one to three points and Hinson two-point leads in two polls. The race is for the seat of retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst.

Iowa Voters Face a Choice as Costs Put GOP Seat at Risk

Iowa’s Senate race is a genuine opportunity for Democrats: six October and early November polls showed a statistical dead heat, and voters are facing economic pressures that have hit farmers especially hard. Turek’s closing ads focused on rising fuel and health care costs while criticizing Hinson’s record. The contest is for the seat of retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst.

The economic strain cited in the race includes the effects of President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and increased prices for fuel in the United States amid the Iran conflict. Hinson, who has Trump’s endorsement, has called for an immediate end to the Iran conflict, saying Iowans are being squeezed. That position stands apart from Trump and from some of her own past votes.

Hinson presents herself as an Iowa-focused conservative and says she would challenge Trump when necessary for the state. Turek calls himself a moderate and has praised Trump’s border-security approach. Their appeals to swing voters reflect the narrow contest: none of the six polls reviewed put either candidate ahead by more than three points, and all leads were within the surveys’ margins of error.

Trump campaigned for Hinson and other Republicans in Dubuque on the Sunday before Election Day. Hinson’s final campaign tour stopped in Fort Madison, Davenport and Des Moines on November 2. Polls were scheduled to open November 3 on November 3, 2026.

Hinson Makes an Iowa-First Pitch in Tight Senate Contest

Ashley Hinson is making her case as an Iowa conservative, not simply relying on a national label, in a race where six polls from October and early November showed no candidate ahead by more than three points. All leads were within the polls’ margins of error. Hinson has also said she would challenge President Donald Trump when Iowa’s interests require it, even as she holds his endorsement.

That independence has been visible in her call for an immediate end to the war in Iran. Hinson said the conflict was squeezing Iowans economically, a departure from Trump and some of her own previous votes. Her message combines that state-first stance with the support of a president who campaigned for her and other Republicans in Dubuque on the Sunday before Election Day.

Democrat Josh Turek is also courting voters beyond his party, describing himself as a moderate and praising Trump’s handling of border security. His campaign’s closing ads attacked Hinson’s record and highlighted rising fuel and health care costs. The economic argument matters in a state where farmers have faced pressure from Trump’s trade tariffs and increased fuel costs associated with the fighting in Iran.

The candidates are competing for the seat of retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst. Hinson’s “Fighting for Iowa” tour stopped in Fort Madison, Davenport and Des Moines on November 2. Iowa polls were set to open November 3, on November 3, 2026.