Hispanic Voter Discontent Puts GOP Seats in Play
Hispanic voters who helped Donald Trump win in 2024 could become a pivotal force in the November midterms. Their concerns about the economy and the administration’s immigration policies have given Democrats hope, particularly in Texas, where Hispanic residents make up more than 30% of eligible voters and statewide races are competitive.
Trump won about 48% of Hispanic voters nationwide in 2024 and about 55% in Texas. But a survey released in October put his approval among Hispanic voters at 24%. Pew Research Center found that 24% of Hispanic voters who backed Trump in 2024 now plan to vote for a Democratic House candidate; 65% still favor Republicans, while 11% favor Democrats.
Four House contests feature Republican incumbents in districts with large Hispanic populations that Trump carried in 2024: California’s 22nd, Colorado’s 8th, Florida’s 27th and Texas’ 15th. The districts range from about 40% Hispanic in Colorado to more than 80% in Texas. GOP incumbents David Valadao, Gabe Evans, Maria Elvira Salazar and Monica De La Cruz face Democratic challengers, with immigration and affordability among the campaign issues described by the candidates.
In Texas, an October poll found Hispanic voters favored Democrat James Talarico over Republican Ken Paxton for Senate by six to one, and favored Democrat Gina Hinojosa over Gov. Greg Abbott by a similar margin. Republican National Committee Hispanic outreach director Jaime Florez argued that Democrats lack solutions and questioned whether polls capture Hispanic voters’ views. The results could also matter in competitive districts in California, Arizona, Florida and Pennsylvania.
Hispanic Voters Are Turning Against Trump’s GOP
Trump’s gains with Hispanic voters in 2024 are looking increasingly fragile as voters confront high costs and the administration’s immigration policies. His approval among Hispanic voters stood at 24% in an October survey, and Pew found that nearly a quarter of Hispanic Trump voters now plan to back Democratic House candidates.
That shift matters in Texas, where Hispanic voters account for more than 30% of the eligible electorate and Democrats are leading in October polling for Senate and governor. Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha described voters’ anger as widespread, with prices and paychecks central concerns. In South Texas, immigration enforcement is also troubling voters and workers, he said.
Four Republican House members are defending seats in districts Trump carried in 2024 and where Hispanic residents form a large share of the population. The contests include districts in California, Colorado, Florida and Texas. Some GOP candidates have tried to distance themselves from the administration’s deportation approach, including Florida Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, who warned that immigration enforcement had gone too far.
Republicans argue Democrats have no answers, but that does not erase the political risk created by voters’ discontent. The same concerns could shape races beyond Texas, including competitive districts in California, Arizona, Florida and Pennsylvania.
Democrats See an Opening, but Hispanic Voters Remain Divided
Democrats are betting that frustration with prices and immigration policy will undo some of Trump’s 2024 gains among Hispanic voters. His approval among the group was 24% in an October survey, and Pew found 24% of Hispanic voters who supported him in 2024 now plan to vote for Democratic House candidates.
But the numbers also show limits to that shift: 65% of Hispanic Trump voters said they still intend to support Republican congressional candidates, compared with 11% who plan to vote Democratic. Republican National Committee Hispanic outreach director Jaime Florez says Democrats have not offered solutions and questions whether polling captures Hispanic voters’ concerns about socialism and communism.
Republicans face difficult tests in four districts with large Hispanic populations that Trump carried in 2024, including seats in California, Colorado, Florida and Texas. Some GOP candidates are emphasizing their independence on immigration: Florida Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar has publicly warned that enforcement efforts have gone too far, while Colorado Rep. Gabe Evans has backed an immigration reform bill with a path to legal status.
Democrats are also campaigning on affordability, and October polling in Texas showed Hispanic voters strongly favoring Democratic candidates for Senate and governor. But past shifts in Hispanic voting show the group is not locked to either party, and Republicans are arguing their candidates can still win support.
Reported by CBS News, New York Post, CNN.
