Pate Picks Georgia to Pull Away From Missouri

Published November 11, 2026. Missouri visits No. 1 Georgia on November 14 for the Bulldogs’ final SEC home game. College football analyst Josh Pate expects Georgia to win and cover, with his model making the Bulldogs a 15-point favorite.

Georgia is 8-1 overall and 6-1 in the SEC after beating Ole Miss 42-7. Pate expects the team to stay focused after the win, and noted that coach Kirby Smart is 8-0 against Missouri. Georgia beat the Tigers 30-21 in their last meeting, in 2023. Pate cautioned that the Ole Miss result does not mean the matchup will be easy: Georgia lost at home to Auburn and narrowly beat Alabama this season.

Pate said Missouri’s upset hopes depend in part on running back Jamal Roberts, who leads SEC players in rushing. With Roberts gaining over 100 yards on the ground, the Tigers are 5-0 against FBS teams; without that production, they are 0-3. He totaled 222 yards in the October game with Texas A&M but managed just 66 against Texas on Saturday. Missouri sits 126th nationally for rushing success rate.

Pate added that Missouri should try to make Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton throw, while acknowledging Stockton has 18 touchdown passes this season. Missouri’s disruptive defensive front will miss lineman Langden Kitchen, sidelined for the remainder of the season following knee surgery.

Pate expects a close contest before Georgia’s depth helps it pull away. He said Missouri would need an early break, such as a special teams play or a turnover, to avoid that outcome. The game is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.