School closures accelerate as enrollment falls and budgets tighten

During the previous academic year, 1,156 U.S. schools shut their doors, the largest number since the pandemic. The closures come as public school enrollment dropped by over 1.4 million students, or about 3%, between fall 2019 and 2024. School numbers have declined more slowly than enrollment, pointing to further financial strain for districts, the analysis found.

Vallejo City Unified School District, near San Francisco, now serves roughly half the number of students it had twenty years ago. Enrollment dropped from nearly 18,000 in fall 2006 to about 9,300, and district leaders have closed five campuses since 2025—one-quarter of its schools. They have also proposed cutting as many as one-third of staff positions to address a $36 million deficit.

Fewer births are the main reason enrollment is shrinking. Immigration enforcement, expanded private-school vouchers and homeschooling have also contributed. Bellwether and WestEd estimate the enrollment decline could reduce state revenue for schools by $11.5 billion a year by 2030-31, potentially leading to layoffs, program cuts and more closures.

Closures can fail to deliver the expected savings. Transportation for reassigned students, staff severance and security for empty buildings can absorb the gains, while displaced students may face academic setbacks and families may leave for other schools or districts. Vallejo mother Kimberly Núñez-Brandão said her daughter’s new fifth-grade classroom had 32 students. Some local parents have chosen homeschooling or are considering moving.

Superintendent Rubén Aurelio said closures are intended to concentrate resources for a smaller student population. Researcher Lydia Rainey said districts should not expect states to provide additional funds to rescue schools. Vallejo is also renovating campuses and plans to open a Tagalog-language school as it tries to attract families.

Families Pay the Price as Schools Close Amid Funding Strain

More than a thousand schools closed in the last academic year, while public enrollment fell by over 1.4 million students between 2019 and 2024. Yet campuses are closing more slowly than enrollment is dropping, leaving districts facing more cuts—and children and families bearing the consequences.

Vallejo has shuttered five schools, a quarter of its campuses, as it confronts a $36 million deficit. The district has proposed eliminating as many as one-third of staff positions. At a new school, fifth grader Penny Núñez-Brandão entered a class of 32 after her previous school closed. Her mother described teachers as already overwhelmed.

Closures are no guaranteed budget fix: transportation, severance and building security can swallow savings. Displaced students may also experience lasting academic setbacks, especially when they move to lower-performing schools. Families in Vallejo have responded by homeschooling, choosing other schools or weighing a move.

Falling birth rates are the principal cause of declining enrollment, but immigration enforcement, private-school vouchers and homeschooling have contributed too. Research groups project that falling enrollment could cost schools $11.5 billion in state revenue annually by 2030-31. With states not expected to provide a financial rescue, communities face the prospect of further layoffs, program cuts and closures. Aurelio says the district must concentrate resources; families are left asking whether that approach is improving conditions for the students who remain.

Districts Must Adapt to Fewer Students and Shrinking Budgets

School districts cannot plan for a student population that no longer exists. Vallejo’s enrollment has fallen from nearly 18,000 in 2006 to about 9,300, and its schools are, on average, only 46% full, the district says. Five campuses have closed since 2025 as leaders confront a $36 million deficit.

Across the country, enrollment declined by more than 1.4 million students from fall 2019 to fall 2024. Lower birth rates are the main driver, with homeschooling, private-school vouchers and immigration enforcement also contributing. The number of schools has not fallen as quickly as enrollment, suggesting districts still face difficult decisions.

Superintendent Rubén Aurelio says Vallejo is not closing schools for their own sake: he says concentrating resources is necessary to improve outcomes for the students who remain. Districts also have to contend with the end of temporary pandemic relief funding, rising inflation and contractual pay increases. Vallejo has proposed cuts to as many as one-third of staff positions.

Closures bring real disruption, and costs such as buses, severance and security can diminish savings. But maintaining buildings with fewer students also leaves districts under financial pressure. Vallejo is renovating older campuses and plans a Tagalog-language school as it works to attract families. Researchers estimate declining enrollment could reduce state school revenue by $11.5 billion annually by 2030-31, making careful adjustment more urgent.