Canary Islands Volcano Could Send Tsunami Toward US Coast

McGuire’s worst-case computer model describes a huge section of Cumbre Vieja’s western side breaking off and plunging into the sea. The resulting displacement of water could produce waves as high as about 65 feet in Florida around nine hours later. Other estimates put waves reaching the US East Coast at roughly 33 feet.

The flank is believed to have partly separated during an eruption in 1949. McGuire said research in the 1990s found the mass moving slowly toward the ocean. He expects it will eventually collapse, but said he cannot predict when; the event could be centuries or millennia away. The collapse itself, and the scale of any resulting damage across the Atlantic, remain subjects of scientific debate.

Some researchers point to large boulders in the Bahamas as possible evidence of ancient tsunamis that crossed from the Canary Islands. Their origin is disputed. McGuire also cited evidence of prehistoric waves in the Canary Islands, including deposits high above current sea level. A flank collapse could happen without an eruption, as weakened rock gives way and slides into the water, generating waves that may arrive in successive surges.