Midterm Results Show Broad Swing Toward Democrats

After Texas shifted to Democrats in the midterms, conservative commentator Benny Johnson pointed to the state’s changing racial makeup, writing on election night that its white population had fallen from 89 percent in 1970 to less than 39 percent. The post framed demographic change as decisive in the result. The figures do not account for the fact that older Texas population data classified Hispanic residents as white, and Democrats won the state in the 1970s.

Republicans Blame Demographics Instead of Facing Voter Backlash

Republicans searching for an explanation for the midterm defeat have pointed to the presence of minority voters, with Benny Johnson citing Texas’ changing racial composition after the state shifted to Democrats. That argument offers a convenient escape from responsibility for the party’s record in power and its promises to voters.

The numbers show the swing was not confined to minority-heavy areas. Places with populations that were 80 to 100 percent non-Hispanic white moved 12.2 percentage points toward Democrats, while areas that were 60 to 80 percent white shifted 10.9 points. In areas with less than 20 percent white residents, the movement was 22.2 points.

Young white men also moved sharply toward Democrats: preliminary estimates put the swing at 35 points compared with the 2024 presidential election, while exit polling showed a 17-point shift. The movement extended to voters without college degrees, rural communities, Latinos who had supported Trump in 2024, and men more broadly. The results point to broad voter dissatisfaction, including over the economy and how policies were carried out—not a single group to blame.

Demographic Shifts Remain Central to Texas’ Political Future

Texas’ move to Democrats in the midterms has renewed attention to the state’s changing population. On election night, conservative commentator Benny Johnson noted that the white share of Texas’ population had fallen from 89 percent in 1970 to less than 39 percent. Demographic change is an important part of the state’s political landscape, even as the figures cited do not reflect that Hispanic residents were counted as white in older data and Democrats won Texas in the 1970s.

The results also show that the Democratic swing reached beyond minority-heavy areas. Places that were 80 to 100 percent non-Hispanic white shifted 12.2 percentage points toward Democrats, and those with 60 to 80 percent white populations moved 10.9 points. Areas with less than 20 percent white residents swung 22.2 points.

Preliminary estimates found a 35-point Democratic shift among white men ages 18 to 29 compared with the 2024 presidential election; exit polling showed a 17-point swing. Other groups that had supported Republicans, including non-college voters, rural communities, and Latinos who backed Trump in 2024, also moved toward Democrats. The results suggest demographic change alone cannot explain the defeat, but they do not make the state’s changing electorate irrelevant to future Republican prospects.