How newsrooms decide when election races are won

The Associated Press will call winners in races across the country during the 2026 midterms, using a team of journalists, researchers and data specialists. Its standard is whether the candidates trailing in the count still have a way to overtake the leader—not which organization reaches a decision first.

The AP team examines results as they arrive, including where votes were cast and how many ballots remain uncounted. It also considers voting patterns, state election rules and past results. The team makes a call only when the evidence establishes that the trailing candidate cannot win. Close margins may require waiting for more ballots or, in some cases, a recount-related assessment.

David Scott, the AP’s vice president of election services, said the organization prioritizes accuracy over speed. He said the AP made three errors among more than 11,000 races it called in this year’s primaries, including errors tied to faulty information from election officials and a technical issue.

Other newsrooms will use different methods. NBC, ABC and CNN plan to combine their own models with reporting from the field. Fox News will make independent calls using AP results alongside other information, while MS NOW plans to rely on AP. The New York Times generally uses AP calls but may make some of its own; Bloomberg and Reuters will use third-party sources.

Decision Desk HQ collects vote totals from election offices and uses statistical models to evaluate uncounted ballots. News organizations may therefore reach conclusions at different times as they apply their own processes to incoming results.