AP Poll and CFP Rankings Have Closely Matched Over 12 Years

The first College Football Playoff rankings of the season are due on November 3. Across the playoff’s 12-year history, the committee’s opening top 25 has generally resembled the AP poll released around the same time: 283 of the 300 teams ranked by the committee also appeared in the AP poll, a 94% overlap.

The two rankings put a team in precisely the same position 84 times, and within one spot 78 times. They agreed on the No. 1 team in seven seasons. Their closest match came in 2024, when 13 teams held identical positions and six others differed by one place. In 2015, none matched exactly.

The committee evaluates teams using factors including results on the field, schedule difficulty, head-to-head outcomes, shared opponents and player or coach availability. AP and coaches’ polls are not part of its evaluation. This season, the committee has also added a measure of conference-opponent strength.

The opening rankings offer an early view, not the final playoff lineup. In the 12-team format, the field comprises the five highest-ranked conference champions and seven other top-ranked teams. The first four seeds receive byes. Across the past two seasons, every at-large team selected appeared in the opening rankings’ top 18.

Separately, New Mexico reached No. 22 in the AP poll after beating San Jose State 21-16. The 7-1 Lobos are ranked for the first time in the program’s 134-year history and remain Mountain West’s sole team without a conference loss.