Prediction Markets Outperformed Polls on Midterm WinnersMarkets Beat Polls as Democrats Won Decisive Midterm VictoriesElection Forecasts Picked Winners, but Markets Still Missed Races
On November 4, 2026, prediction markets more consistently identified winners in major U.S. midterm races than late polls, while both missed or underestimated some results.On November 4, 2026, prediction markets more consistently picked winners in major midterm races than late polls, as Democrats made gains and some polling understated their margins.On November 4, 2026, prediction markets more consistently picked winners in major U.S. midterm races than late polls, though they missed some Democratic Senate victories.