California Billionaire Tax Falls Behind in New Poll

A poll released on October 29 found support for California’s Proposition 40 has slipped since September, leaving the proposed billionaire wealth tax trailing as Election Day approaches. The measure would levy a single 5% charge on the wealth of billionaires residing in California on January 1, with some exceptions, and direct most of the revenue to health care programs.

Half of likely voters said they plan to vote no, compared with 42% who said they support the measure, according to the survey by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies. A separate poll by the Public Policy Institute of California also showed opposition ahead, at 52% against and 46% in favor.

The measure has divided Democrats. Nearly two-thirds of Democratic voters support it, while more than a quarter oppose it. Republican voters overwhelmingly oppose it. Gov. Gavin Newsom has warned the tax could drive wealthy residents away and further hurt the state budget; the California Democratic Party and prominent progressives back it.

Opponents have raised nearly $368 million, compared with $36 million for supporters. Propositions 41 and 42 could also negate Proposition 40 if either receives more votes. The poll found both measures now face more opposition than support, and opposition to Proposition 40 has risen across major voter groups.

Poll director Mark DiCamillo said the measure’s prospects have dimmed. Support for a separate measure to continue an existing higher income-tax rate on wealthy residents was stronger: 54% favored it and 37% opposed it.

Billionaire-Funded Opposition Pushes California Tax Behind

California’s proposed billionaire tax is losing ground as wealthy opponents pour money into a campaign against it, a new poll released on October 29 shows. Proposition 40 would charge 5% once on the wealth of billionaires who resided in the state on January 1, with most of the proceeds designated for health care.

Half of likely voters now say they plan to vote against it, while 42% support it. Just six weeks earlier, the measure was narrowly ahead in the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll. A separate poll also found the tax trailing, with 52% opposed and 46% in favor.

The spending imbalance is stark: opponents have raised nearly $368 million, compared with $36 million for supporters. Propositions 41 and 42, backed by the tax’s opponents, could nullify it if either receives more votes. The latest poll found both measures facing more opposition than support, but the campaign against Proposition 40 has already spent heavily to shape the fight.

Democratic voters are divided, though nearly two-thirds support the tax; the state Democratic Party and leading progressives also back it. Supporters argue the measure would help fund health care, while the poll’s findings show opposition has grown across major voter groups. The battle is unfolding as federal health care reductions enacted by President Trump and congressional Republicans are estimated to leave a $100 billion funding gap.

Voters Turn Against California’s Billionaire Wealth Tax

California voters are increasingly rejecting Proposition 40, a proposed one-time 5% tax on billionaires’ assets, according to a poll released on October 29. Half of likely voters said they plan to vote against it, while 42% support it—a reversal from a narrow lead for the measure six weeks earlier.

The tax’s opponents have argued that California risks driving wealthy residents away and worsening a state budget dependent on its richest taxpayers. Gov. Gavin Newsom has raised that concern, while supporters say the revenue would mostly fund health care. The measure has divided Democrats, and nearly a third of Democratic voters oppose it despite majority support within the party.

The poll’s contrast with voters’ views of an existing tax is telling: 54% support continuing a higher income-tax rate on wealthy residents that funds education, while 37% oppose it. Proposition 40, by comparison, remains below majority support as the campaign nears Election Day.

Critics of wealth taxes argue that private enterprise and innovation have already benefited the public through better products, services and lower prices, and question whether California would use additional revenue effectively. The poll also found increased opposition to Propositions 41 and 42, measures that could nullify Proposition 40 if either gets more votes.