China and ASEAN Miss Deadline for South China Sea Pact

China and Southeast Asian countries will not finish negotiations on a proposed South China Sea code of conduct by the end of 2026, despite agreeing in 2023 to aim for that deadline. After their final round of talks this year, held last month, negotiators had provisionally agreed on about 80% of the pact’s paragraphs, three senior Southeast Asian diplomats said.

The talks began in 2005. The proposed accord is intended to encourage restraint and discourage aggressive actions that could trigger clashes in the disputed waters, a major global trade route. Negotiations have at times been delayed by tensions and confrontations in the region.

The remaining major disagreements concern which geographic areas the pact would cover, how to define sensitive terms, and whether the agreement would be legally binding. The diplomats did not discuss those issues publicly.

The Philippines, which led ASEAN this year, arranged meetings at least monthly. China and Malaysia jointly led at least 10 major negotiating rounds. Talks are expected to continue next year, when Singapore takes over ASEAN’s leadership.

The negotiations and continuing incidents in the South China Sea are expected to feature at the ASEAN leaders’ summit in Manila, which begins this weekend. China and four ASEAN members—Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam—are among the parties to long-running territorial disputes in the waterway, alongside Taiwan. A Manila-based analyst said a code alone might not deter aggression, and pointed to diplomacy, legal action and stronger military capabilities as possible complementary tools.

South China Sea Pact Delay Shows Need for Real Restraint

A proposed South China Sea code of conduct remains unfinished, with key questions still open about its geographic reach, the meaning of sensitive terms and whether it would be legally binding. China and Southeast Asian countries had agreed in 2023 to complete negotiations by this year, but now expect to continue in 2027.

The parties have provisionally agreed on about 80% of the text after a year of more frequent meetings. The Philippines, leading ASEAN this year, scheduled talks at least monthly, while China and Malaysia jointly led at least 10 major rounds. That progress matters, but it has not resolved the issues that will determine what the pact actually covers and how much force it carries.

The negotiations began in 2005 to promote restraint in waters where territorial disputes and confrontations have persisted. The proposed code is meant to discourage aggressive acts that could lead to clashes, but a Manila-based geopolitical analyst cautioned that it may not deter aggression on its own. He said diplomacy, legal action and stronger military capabilities could also play a role.

The delay comes as incidents in the South China Sea are expected to figure prominently at the ASEAN summit in Manila. China and Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan are involved in long-running territorial standoffs in the waterway. A pact with unresolved questions—and no settled legal status—cannot yet provide the clear restraint the region needs.

ASEAN’s South China Sea Talks Need More Than a Pact

China and Southeast Asian countries have not completed the South China Sea code of conduct by the deadline they set in 2023. About 80% of the proposed text is provisionally agreed, but negotiations will continue next year over the pact’s geographic scope, key definitions and legal force.

The unfinished agreement is intended to encourage restraint and discourage actions that could provoke clashes in a vital trade route. Yet the remaining disagreements are consequential: without agreement on where the code applies and whether it is binding, its reach and effect remain unsettled.

The Philippines increased the pace of meetings while leading ASEAN this year, and China and Malaysia jointly led at least 10 major rounds. The process has made progress, but continued incidents and long-running territorial disputes mean diplomacy must be judged by whether it can help prevent confrontations—not simply by how many paragraphs have been drafted.

A Manila-based analyst said the proposed code may not deter aggression by itself. He identified foreign diplomacy, legal action and stronger military capability as complementary tools. That argument is especially salient as ASEAN leaders meet in Manila, with the South China Sea on the agenda and the United States and China among the outside leaders expected to engage after the summit.

China has urged the United States to stay out of what it calls a purely Asian dispute, while Washington has said it is obligated to defend the Philippines if Filipino forces face an armed attack. The negotiations now move into 2027, under Singapore’s ASEAN leadership, with the core disagreements still unresolved.