October Inflation Report Expected to Show Cooler Monthly Price Growth
Economists expect the Consumer Price Index to have risen 0.3% in October from September, with core inflation, which excludes food and energy, up 0.2%. The report, due November 10, will not include the usual year-over-year comparison: a government shutdown disrupted data collection and the October 2025 report was not published. The latest annual figure is September’s 3.7%, up from 3.4% in August and over one percentage point higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
Fuel drove much of the recent pressure. Gas prices rose more than 9% in September, accounting for over half of that month’s overall price increase. But the national average fell from $4.41 a gallon on October 1 to $4.18 at month’s end, and was below $4 on November 9. That recent decline comes too late to appear in the October report.
The Iran war has pushed fuel costs higher: regular gasoline prices are up 40% since the conflict began in February, while diesel is up 70% from the start of the year. Economists say lower fuel prices could ease pressure on airfares and goods, while shelter and services inflation may also slow. Higher diesel costs can feed into the price of goods transported to stores.
The figures arrive as the Federal Reserve considers another rate increase at its December 8-9 meeting. A September quarter-point hike was the Fed’s second increase in four months. Markets put the odds of another quarter-point rise at about 82% to 85%. October employers added 165,000 jobs, well above the monthly average of 48,000 over the previous year, adding to the policy trade-off between curbing inflation and slowing the economy.
Fuel Relief Won’t Erase the Costs of Trump’s Inflation Policies
The October inflation report may offer a brief easing in monthly price growth, but it will not undo the squeeze facing households. Economists expect prices to rise 0.3% from September and core inflation to increase 0.2%. The report, due November 10, will lack a year-over-year figure because the government shutdown disrupted data collection and the October 2025 report was skipped.
The latest annual reading, 3.7% in September, remains over one percentage point higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Gasoline prices had climbed more than 9% in September, accounting for over half of that month’s overall price increase. October brought some relief at the pump, with the national average dropping from $4.41 a gallon at the start of the month to $4.18 at the end. The decline since then, below $4 on November 9, will not be captured in Tuesday’s report.
The Iran war has driven regular gas prices up 40% since February and diesel prices 70% since the start of the year. Higher diesel costs reach beyond the pump, raising expenses for the transport industry and potentially the goods it delivers. Global tariffs also add to the cost of imported products.
Now the Fed is weighing another rate hike, with market odds around 82% to 85% for December. Higher rates may restrain inflation by slowing demand, but they also risk weakening hiring. October’s 165,000 new jobs were far above the previous year’s monthly average, even as voters have made rising prices a central concern.
Inflation Still Demands Discipline Despite a Fall in Fuel Prices
A dip in fuel prices is welcome, but it is not a reason to declare inflation beaten. Economists expect October prices to rise 0.3% from the prior month, with core inflation up 0.2%. The report, due November 10, will not provide an annual comparison because a government shutdown prevented publication of the October 2025 data.
The most recent annual inflation rate was 3.7% in September, over one percentage point higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Gas prices rose more than 9% that month and accounted for over half of the overall price increase. They eased in October, falling from an average of $4.41 a gallon on October 1 to $4.18 at month’s end, and the national average was below $4 on November 9. That latest relief will not show up in the October figures.
The Fed faces a consequential choice at its December 8-9 meeting: another rate increase could help bring price growth under control, while risking a slowdown in hiring. A September quarter-point increase was the second hike in four months. Markets put the chance of another quarter-point move at about 82% to 85%.
The labor market remains resilient: employers added 165,000 jobs in October, far above the average of 48,000 a month over the previous year. That strength gives policymakers evidence to weigh alongside stubborn inflation. The central bank’s responsibility to bring prices down does not disappear because gasoline has temporarily become cheaper.
Reported by NBC News, ABC News.
