El Niño Forecast to Strengthen Through Early 2027

El Niño is continuing to intensify, and the Climate Prediction Center expects the Pacific climate pattern to remain strong or very strong through January-March 2027. The center puts the odds of that strength level above 79 percent, while forecasting that the event will begin weakening early next year.

The agency also sees about a 60 percent chance that this episode will surpass previous El Niños dating back to 1950 during the October-December and November-January periods. Sea-surface temperature anomalies have topped 4 degrees Celsius and spread farther west across the eastern equatorial Pacific.

El Niño is a recurring pattern of warmer Pacific waters that can affect temperatures and rainfall around the world. In the United States, winter conditions often include more rain in the South and warmer, drier weather in the North, though the pattern does not guarantee those outcomes.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s winter outlook favors warmer-than-average temperatures in several northern and central regions, including the Pacific Northwest, Midwest and much of the East. Wetter conditions are favored across the southern tier and along the East Coast, while some northern areas, Alaska and Hawaii could be drier than usual.

NOAA’s National Weather Service director Ken Graham said a very strong El Niño would likely shift the jet stream south and east, raising the odds of stormier weather in the South. He cautioned that rain and snow could help drought-affected areas but that heavy precipitation on dry ground can trigger flash floods and mudslides, and urged communities to prepare for winter.