McElroy Picks Missouri to Upset Texas

Greg McElroy has picked Missouri to upset Texas in their November 7 matchup, calling it his only outright upset selection for Week 10. Both teams enter at 6-2 in the SEC, with their College Football Playoff hopes still in play. Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET on ESPN.

McElroy’s prediction centers on turnovers. Missouri is plus-eight in turnover margin, while Texas is minus-three. The Tigers turned four Arkansas giveaways into 24 points in their latest game. Takeaways have produced 62 points for Missouri this season, and the team has not given up a point after its own turnovers, McElroy said. He also cited coach Eli Drinkwitz’s 39-4 record when Missouri wins the turnover battle.

Texas quarterback Arch Manning has thrown 15 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Both of the Longhorns’ losses were by three points and included costly fourth-quarter turnovers. Texas has also allowed frequent pressure, and left tackle Trevor Goosby is out for the season with a knee injury. Missouri’s defensive backs, McElroy argued, could challenge Texas receivers in man coverage.

The Longhorns need offensive production: coach Steve Sarkisian’s teams are 14-35 when scoring fewer than 24 points, McElroy said. Texas running back Hollywood Smothers is out, while receivers Ryan Wingo and Cam Coleman were listed as questionable. McElroy sees Wingo’s ability after the catch and a deep pass to Coleman as possible routes to points.

Texas is ranked No. 7 in the first playoff rankings, 11 places above Missouri. A loss would leave the Longhorns with three defeats before a visit to LSU next week.